2009 is shaping up to be a year of political turmoil for Asia.

Millions will be going to the polls in many large and small Asian nations to elect new leaders, retain incumbents and campaign for transformations.

From Fiji to The Philippines, Japan to India, Malaysia to East Timor, politics threatens to make 2009 a turbulent year and the homeland woes will send ripples of dissent through the Asian diaspora in Canada.

Fiji started the ball rolling even before the year ended by kicking out New Zealand’s acting high commissioner.

Stubborn military ruler Frank Bainimarama is moving closer to confrontation with his neighbours, particularly New Zealand and Australia, which want him to drop plans to remake Fiji’s political system and hold fresh elections.

East Timor is also heading into political turmoil as President Jose Ramos-Horta is bitterly opposed to attempts by the Prime Minister, Jose Xanana Gusmao, to start using petroleum cash for immediate development projects.

For the last three years, Thailand’s political scene has been in upheaval. The country is on its fifth prime minister since 2006.

The tenure of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who took office last month, could likely come to an end before 2009 is out, especially if the five-year Islamic insurgency in Thailand’s southern provinces shows no sign of abating. Thai police say more than 3,500 people have perished in the largely Muslim southern border provinces since the insurgency began.

The Year of the Ox is not going to be kind to China especially when it comes to anniversaries.

As the Asian behemoth deals with the on-going financial crisis, China’s communist leaders will have to bear international scrutiny and global condemnation for their actions in Tibet, Tiananmen Square and against the Falun Gong movement.

March 10th 2009 will be the 50th anniversary of the Tibetan uprising that forced the Dalai Lama to flee to India.

June 4th, 2009 is the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square debacle.

The Falun Gong movement will use July 22, 2009 – the 10th anniversary of its banishment – to show how ruthless Beijing has been toward its followers both at home and worldwide.

Some are predicting the collapse of the Communist leadership and this is likely to lead to a show of force on Oct 1, 2009 – the 60th anniversary of Red China.

The Philippines – the poor man of Southeast Asia – will feel the full brunt of the global economic crunch in 2009, with at least 11 million Filipinos losing their jobs, local and international economists have predicted.

Add to that the fragile authority of president Gloria Macapagal Arroyo – the archipelago known for its people power protests is gearing up for a new president in 2010.

The world’s largest democracy, India, will go to the polls in May 2009 amidst geo-political tensions, unresolved religious pressures and about a dozen insurgencies that plague the country.

Many predict that the ruling Indian National Congress party will be replaced by an alliance of hard-line Hindu fundamentalists, which would infuriate Pakistan, a country that will continue to be wracked by inter-party rivalry.

Elsewhere in South Asia: Sri Lanka will intensify its operations to crush the Tamil Tiger rebels who can be expected to retaliate with suicide bombings on civilian targets; Bangladesh has a new democratic government under Sheikh Hasina Wajed, who has the impossible task of improving the plight of 40 per cent of its 144 million people who live on less than a dollar a day; and, Singapore and Hong Kong will have to deal with increasingly pessimistic societies that will test the resolve of their leaders especially when it comes to money matters.

Indonesia – the world’s most populous Muslim country – will go to the polls in April as 174 million voters will choose a president and vice-president and 560 parliamentarians. The results will determine how democratic values and Islamic principles will coexist on the nation’s 14,000 tropical islands.

Japan goes to the polls in 2009 with an identity crisis as conservatives and liberals debate furiously over immigration reform to counter a fast-shrinking population. Many Japanese believe the rise of foreigners in Japan will bring social instability and this mood is fuelled by politicians and the media who invoke Armageddon-like scenarios resulting from assimilation.

There will be a change of guard in Malaysia when Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi hands over the reins of the country to his deputy, Najib Razak, in March 2009. That is not going to stop the leader of the opposition alliance, Anwar Ibrahim, who is threatening to take over the government by persuading members of the ruling coalition to cross the floor.

All in all, it’s not a pretty picture for Asia in 2009.