By Mata Press Service

Prime Minister Mark Carney has opened the door to increasing immigration again, saying Ottawa is beginning to consider when Canada should resume a “controlled increase” in population after two years of sharp cuts to newcomer levels.

The comments have drawn an immediate rebuke from the opposition Conservatives, who say immigration levels should be reduced further to ease pressure on housing, jobs, health care and other public services.

Carney made the remarks in a recent interview with The New York Times, saying his government had brought the immigration system back under control after the rapid population growth of the post-pandemic years.

“Now the question starts to become, when do we resume some controlled increase in the population, which is the nature of Canada?” Carney said.

“So that will happen, and we just want to make sure that we’ve got it under control.”

The remarks represent a significant shift in tone from a government that has spent the past two years cutting immigration targets after acknowledging Canada had brought in newcomers faster than housing and public services could keep pace.

They also come just weeks before Ottawa is expected to release its next three-year immigration plan, covering 2027 through 2029.

Conservative immigration critic Michelle Rempel Garner said her party would oppose any move to raise immigration levels.

“Immigration levels must go way down, not up,” she said.

Rempel Garner said the Liberals had already allowed population growth to outrun the country’s capacity to provide housing, health care and jobs and called for “much, much lower” targets in the upcoming immigration plan.

“The Conservative Party of Canada will vigorously oppose any efforts by Prime Minister Carney and his Liberal government to increase immigration,” she said in a statement.

She also accused Ottawa of failing to deal with asylum backlogs, expired visas and people remaining in Canada without legal status.

The clash comes as the impact of Ottawa’s immigration slowdown is becoming increasingly visible.

As Mata Press Service reported last week, Canada’s population grew by just 189,425 people in the year ending July 1, reaching about 41.8 million.

The increase of 0.5 per cent was the lowest percentage growth since 1915-16 and a dramatic decline from the 2.8 per cent population growth recorded in 2023-24.

Much of that slowdown has come from falling numbers of international students and other temporary residents.

The number of non-permanent residents fell by 154,614 over the past year to about 2.78 million, the largest July-to-July decline since comparable records began in 1971-72.

Temporary residents still account for 6.7 per cent of Canada’s population, down from a peak of 7.2 per cent in October 2024. Ottawa wants that share reduced to below five per cent by the end of 2027.

International students have borne much of the reduction.

Immigration department figures show the number of study permit holders fell from more than 1.03 million in June 2024 to 632,535 by June of this year, a decline of almost 39 per cent in two years.

Work permit numbers have moved in the opposite direction.

About 1.55 million people held work permits as of June, up from roughly 1.41 million two years earlier. About 253,000 were under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program, while around 1.3 million were under the much larger International Mobility Program.

Permanent immigration has also been pulled back.

The federal government had previously planned to increase permanent resident admissions to 500,000 a year before reversing course as concerns mounted over housing shortages, rising rents and strained public services.

The current immigration plan targets 380,000 permanent residents annually through 2028.

New temporary resident arrivals are targeted at 385,000 this year and 370,000 in each of 2027 and 2028.

Carney has pointed to the declining temporary population and slower overall population growth as evidence that Ottawa has regained control of the system.

But the question of whether Canada should begin increasing immigration again is already dividing policymakers.

The C.D. Howe Institute’s Immigration Targets Council has urged Ottawa to keep cutting.

It has recommended admitting 380,000 permanent residents in 2027, dropping to 350,000 in 2028 and 340,000 in 2029.

The council has also argued that temporary residents should eventually account for closer to three per cent of Canada’s population, rather than treating five per cent as the long-term objective.

Its members argue that immigration levels should be tied more closely to the country’s ability to provide homes, jobs, health care and infrastructure.

Council chair Parisa Mahboubi said Canada still lacks reliable information showing how many temporary residents leave once their legal status ends, describing the country as effectively “flying in the dark.”

Carney also faces pressures pulling in the other direction.

Canada’s population is aging, while employers in construction, health care, agriculture, transportation, hospitality and other industries remain heavily dependent on immigrant labour.

Immigrants, including permanent and non-permanent residents, accounted for about 25 per cent of construction workers last year, 45 per cent of transportation and warehousing workers, 44 per cent of accommodation and food service workers and roughly one-third of health-care workers, according to federal data.

Slower population growth can also weigh on the broader economy by reducing the growth of the workforce and consumer demand.

Carney has pointed to weaker population growth as one reason for softer economic expansion.

That argument has drawn warnings from some economists who say immigration should not be used simply to supply employers with more workers.

University of Waterloo economist Mikal Skuterud, a member of the C.D. Howe council, said businesses facing tight labour markets should compete by offering better wages and more attractive jobs rather than looking to higher immigration to expand the labour supply.